Jaipur Wealth Management：The increase stood out in large categories of assets, and Hong Kong stocks have become the best stock market this year.

The protagonist of this year's National Day holiday is undoubtedly Indian assets.Regardless of whether it is Hong Kong stocks, FTSE A50 or Chinese stocks, the increase has stood out of large -scale assets, and Hong Kong stocks have become the best performance this year.During the holidays, only crude oil that can be comparable to Indian assets is beneficial to the continuous upgrading of the Middle East.From the perspective of several assets with good performance (October 1st to 4th, the yield rate exceeds 1%), aside from geopolitical factors, there are two major driving forces in the current market: first, the policies are loose and stimulusTypical examples such as Indian assets and the Nikkei Index; the second is the further confirmation of economic toughness, such as the US dollar index and US stocks after October 1.After the holiday, the market will be more optimistic about A shares in the short term, which is obvious.However, if we extend the time, the answer to "A shares or US stocks" may not be so clear. After the release of non -agricultural data on Friday, the capital market has the choice of "policy expectations" and "economic stability" types on Friday.There is still hesitation.For U.SJaipur Wealth Management. stocks, we will not be empty, but the income space will be limited in the next quarter.U.SBangalore Stock Exchange. stocks during an important economic transition will become more sensitive to fundamentals and risks.At present, the current American data is semi -semi -seminated and the risk of political policy is not small. It is an objective constraint: First, refer to historical experience, even if it is soft landing, the performance of US stocks in the early days after interest rate cuts will be more "restrained".Since 1970s, aside from the recession rate cut, the US economy has landed, the S & P 500 has an average increase of about 2.7%within a quarter after the first quarter reduction; if it is aside from the atypical scenario of 1995, this increase will not exceed 2%.Secondly, the increase in signs of soft landing in the US economy does not mean that the profitability of the stock market will also improve.Although we see the toughness of the US service industry, the orders of durable goods, and employment data, the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is the core thermometer of the United States, continues to be expected, which also meansThe profit growth rate will decline.Third, in addition to economic uncertainty, the anxiety of the election and the Fed's swing will become an important source of US stock risks.On October 1 (Eastern Time), in the debate of the US Vice President's candidate, the Republican Wanda was better, which slightly reversed the disadvantage of Trump in the election after the President's debate on September 11, so that the election of the original election was even moreIt is difficult to separate.And this old -fashioned risk is to effectively play its role.For A shares, the driving force will mainly come from emotional and incremental funds in the future, but the fundamentals are not so important.The market performance before and during the holidays, let us feel that the current Indian stock market is a bit similar to the market after the public health incident from 2020 to 2021, and the combination of the market adjustment after the fourth quarter of 2022Guoabong Investment. Both behind the two are behind them.The logic of emotions+funds: Similar to 2020 to 2021, the risk events and market volatility of overseas may be profitable for A shares.After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the spread of overseas epidemic often leads to a better performance in Indian assets.Similar logic, due to the strength of India's domestic policy, the continuous turbulence or unfavorable policies of overseas may cause funds to turn to India.This is mainly concentrated in the holidaysVaranasi Wealth Management. Indian assets such as Hong Kong stocks, A50 and Japan and Indian stock markets (Japanese new prime ministers are policy tightening factions), and the resonance with the rise of the US dollar and VIX (different, the Middle East situation before, the Middle East situation situationIt did not affect Indian assets).Similar to the fourth quarter of 2022, the driver of funds and emotions is strong and can temporarily ignore the fundamental drag.After the policy changes in the fourth quarter of 2022, despite the cooling of economic activities, the stock market was limited and the rising market continued to early February 2023.At present, the story of funds is very space.Objectively speaking, both domestic or overseas are not equipped with the Indian stock market.In the domestic side, we observe the proportion of the A -share market value to the scale of the deposit of the overall resident. As of the end of August, this data is flat at mid -2014, and it is the lowest level since the data.One ratio should be smaller.Overseas, according to Goldman Sachs's calculations, as of the end of August this year, the global initiative fund's allocation of Indian equity assets accounted for only 5%, the lowest level in the past 10 years.The key is the continuation of emotional policies, and it can be seen that the policy's demand for "boosting the market" is high.The policy style of one step and one step before, in this round of policy turning, it has changed significantly -the continuous vocalization and efforts of the policy: after the press conference of the National New Office and the Politburo meeting, before and during the holidays,The financial sector has issued a rush to introduce real estate support policies, and first -tier cities have quickly relaxed real estate demand constraints.On the first day of the festival and the morning of October 8th, the Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference on the implementation of an incremental policy of incremental packages, highlighting the demands of the policy hoping to continue to boost demand; therefore, for the fiscal policy of the market, we believe that the policy will not stand by, and the policy will not stand by.The time window in late October is worthy of attention.Fundamentals: There may be surprises.Although we believe that fundamental expression may not be so important in this round of market, from the perspective of economic characteristics after the epidemic, the economy in the third quarter is often weak, and the economic performance of the fourth quarter of policy blessings is often exceeded.At the important stage of economic transition, "the emotional person gets the world"?Based on the above analysis, we tend to believe that the resonance steering of the Chinese and US policies in September may bring important inflection points in global economy and market.At the beginning of the inflection point, it is often more important for the market.A shares are obviously more opportunities. In the next one to two quarters, we will be more optimistic about the Indian stock market exemption statement: This article is for reference only, without verification, it is not responsible for the transaction results, and please take responsibility.Udabur Investment